tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2890 Southwest MKE 08:10 STL 09:28 5% 1% 0.4% no record
WN 2891 Southwest MKE 16:21 STL 17:40 8% 2% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MKE 05:45 → ATL 08:46DL 1221 2h 54m Atlanta ATL 11:40 → STL 12:17DL 566 6h 32m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → MKE 08:41 → DTW 10:57DL 3757 · flown by SkyWest 1h 31m Detroit DTW 12:28 → STL 13:05DL 1371 4h 24m 95% 88%
DeltaDetails → MKE 10:11 → ATL 13:14DL 2999 1h 49m Atlanta ATL 15:03 → STL 15:52DL 543 5h 41m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → MKE 12:58 → ATL 16:07DL 1151 3h 02m Atlanta ATL 19:09 → STL 19:58DL 2833 7h 00m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → MKE 17:42 → ATL 21:04DL 1206 2h 06m Atlanta ATL 23:10 → STL 23:53DL 1403 6h 11m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → MKE 12:07 → MSP 13:26DL 561 1h 39m Minneapolis MSP 15:05 → STL 16:41DL 1224 4h 34m 97% 87%
UnitedDetails → MKE 06:20 → ORD 07:30UA 5896 · flown by SkyWest 3h 33m Chicago ORD 11:03 → STL 12:26UA 1044 6h 06m 98% 86%
AmericanDetails → MKE 05:00 → ORD 06:00AA 6261 · flown by SkyWest 3h 03m Chicago ORD 09:03 → STL 10:17AA 2818 5h 17m 99% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MKE 13:22 → DTW 15:38DL 5476 · flown by Endeavor 1h 07m Detroit DTW 16:45 → STL 17:24DL 2822 4h 02m 69% 63%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON