Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


UA 1413 United	MRY 05:07	DEN 08:40	7%	3%	1.8%	no record
UA 4713 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MRY 12:29	DEN 16:19	16%	6%	0.8%	91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 1 h ahead of Monterey). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	MRY 13:54 → LAX 15:35UA 5523 · flown by SkyWest	3h 10m Los Angeles	LAX 18:45 → DEN 22:15UA 2610	7h 21m	99%	87%
United Details →	MRY 08:00 → SFO 08:56UA 5502 · flown by SkyWest	3h 47m San Francisco	SFO 12:43 → DEN 16:35UA 540	7h 35m	97%	78%
Alaska Details →	MRY 14:40 → SAN 16:17AS 3346 · flown by SkyWest	1h 14m San Diego	SAN 17:31 → DEN 20:48AS 1423	5h 07m	86%	69%
Alaska Details →	MRY 06:00 → SAN 07:34AS 3384 · flown by SkyWest	1h 01m San Diego	SAN 08:35 → DEN 11:47AS 1422	4h 46m	90%	66%
American Details →	MRY 12:42 → DFW 18:11AA 2879	2h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:29 → DEN 21:32AA 577	7h 50m	90%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON