Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


UA 5523 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MRY 13:54	LAX 15:35	11%	7%	0.8%	92%
UA 1150 United	MRY 10:15	LAX 11:41	20%	9%	1.0%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	MRY 06:28 → PHX 08:32AA 6348 · flown by SkyWest	2h 08m Phoenix	PHX 10:40 → LAX 12:12AA 2027	5h 44m	100%	88%
United Details →	MRY 12:29 → DEN 16:19UA 4713 · flown by SkyWest	1h 26m Denver	DEN 17:45 → LAX 19:22UA 1753	6h 53m	93%	82%
United Details →	MRY 08:00 → SFO 08:56UA 5502 · flown by SkyWest	3h 19m San Francisco	SFO 12:15 → LAX 13:55UA 1506	5h 55m	97%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON