Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: AS 3384 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19%.

Nonstops that day


AS 3384 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MRY 06:00	SAN 07:34	8%	7%	6.2%	91%
AS 3346 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MRY 14:53	SAN 16:29	19%	6%	2.2%	72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	MRY 13:54 → LAX 15:35UA 5523 · flown by SkyWest	3h 40m Los Angeles	LAX 19:15 → SAN 20:21UA 1100	6h 27m	100%	86%
American Details →	MRY 06:10 → PHX 08:12AA 3527 · flown by Envoy	2h 36m Phoenix	PHX 10:48 → SAN 12:23AA 2122	6h 13m	100%	83%
United Details →	MRY 08:00 → SFO 08:56UA 5502 · flown by SkyWest	3h 25m San Francisco	SFO 12:21 → SAN 14:08UA 1257	6h 08m	97%	77%
American Details →	MRY 10:04 → PHX 12:09AA 6348 · flown by SkyWest	1h 50m Phoenix	PHX 13:59 → SAN 15:19AA 1951	5h 15m	100%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MRY 08:00 → SFO 08:56UA 5502 · flown by SkyWest	1h 09m San Francisco	SFO 10:05 → SAN 11:51UA 2177	3h 51m	68%	54%
American Details →	MRY 12:18 → DFW 18:00AA 2879	1h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:02 → SAN 20:03AA 1243	7h 45m	66%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON