Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:51 am at Monterey)

Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 34%, against 20% on a calm day. Safest: AS 2290 at 19:29, 33%.

Nonstops today


AS 2290 Alaska flown by Horizon Flight history →	MRY 19:29	SEA 21:56	33%	9%	1.5%	79%worse than usual
QX 2294 Horizon	MRY 17:28	SEA 19:51	35%	11%	1.4%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	MRY 12:29 → DEN 16:19UA 4713 · flown by SkyWest	3h 03m Denver	DEN 19:22 → SEA 21:33UA 2767	9h 04m	98%	74%
Alaska Details →	MRY 14:40 → SAN 16:17AS 3346 · flown by SkyWest	3h 09m San Diego	SAN 19:26 → SEA 22:19AS 1373	7h 39m	98%	59%
American Details →	MRY 12:44 → DFW 18:13AA 2879	2h 59m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:12 → SEA 23:19AA 2009	10h 35m	92%	58%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MRY 12:44 → DFW 18:13AA 2879	1h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:31 → SEA 21:38AA 2003	8h 54m	72%	44%
Alaska Details →	MRY 14:40 → SAN 16:17AS 3346 · flown by SkyWest	1h 02m San Diego	SAN 17:19 → SEA 20:11AS 692	5h 31m	75%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON