Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 2–5% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1160 MSN 05:48 → ATL 08:57 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest DL 2599 MSN 17:00 → ATL 20:24 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Against a calm day 4% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 4% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1160 Delta Flight history →	MSN 05:48	ATL 08:57	2%	2%	0.6%	93%
DL 2681 Delta Flight history →	MSN 11:07	ATL 14:13	3%	3%	0.6%	91%
DL 2599 Delta Flight history →	MSN 17:00	ATL 20:24	5%	3%	0.6%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON