Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 8–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 5374 MSN 05:37 → DCA 08:48 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 5221 MSN 12:06 → DCA 15:15 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5374 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MSN 05:37	DCA 08:48	8%	3%	0.9%	90%
YX 4415 Republic	MSN 16:57	DCA 20:20	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 5645 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	MSN 17:20	DCA 20:24	11%	4%	0.6%	73%
AA 5647 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MSN 12:06	DCA 15:16	14%	5%	0.9%	68%
AA 5221 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MSN 12:06	DCA 15:15	14%	4%	0.9%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON