Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 4–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 5205 MSN 09:28 → DTW 11:52 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest 9E 5099 MSN 09:21 → DTW 11:44 · 8% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5205 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	MSN 09:28	DTW 11:52	4%	1%	0.7%	82%
9E 5385 Endeavor	MSN 09:28	DTW 11:49	4%	1%	0.7%	no record
DL 844 Delta Flight history →	MSN 13:31	DTW 15:49	6%	2%	0.6%	81%
9E 5338 Endeavor	MSN 13:15	DTW 15:41	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
9E 5163 Endeavor	MSN 07:01	DTW 09:25	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 5214 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	MSN 18:31	DTW 20:56	7%	3%	0.7%	74%
9E 5033 Endeavor	MSN 18:01	DTW 20:25	7%	3%	0.7%	no record
9E 5099 Endeavor	MSN 09:21	DTW 11:44	8%	2%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON