Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


UA 3482 United flown by Republic Flight history →	MSN 06:07	EWR 09:27	6%	2%	0.7%	92%
UA 3675 United flown by Republic Flight history →	MSN 11:19	EWR 14:59	6%	2%	0.8%	78%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 1 h ahead of Madison). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	MSN 05:00 → ORD 06:05UA 5902 · flown by SkyWest	1h 23m Chicago	ORD 07:28 → EWR 10:35UA 1273	4h 35m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	MSN 05:48 → ATL 08:57DL 1160	1h 08m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401	5h 33m	96%	86%
United Details →	MSN 06:54 → ORD 08:06UA 2137	2h 45m Chicago	ORD 10:51 → EWR 14:17UA 1856	6h 23m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	MSN 08:52 → MSP 10:10DL 4103 · flown by SkyWest	4h 00m Minneapolis	MSP 14:10 → EWR 17:53DL 2866	8h 01m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	MSN 11:07 → ATL 14:13DL 2681	1h 20m Atlanta	ATL 15:33 → EWR 17:53DL 2340	5h 46m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	MSN 09:27 → DTW 11:51DL 5205 · flown by Endeavor	2h 19m Detroit	DTW 14:10 → EWR 15:54DL 2573	5h 27m	98%	80%
United Details →	MSN 08:50 → DEN 10:20UA 2360	1h 17m Denver	DEN 11:37 → EWR 17:31UA 1233	7h 41m	96%	80%
Delta Details →	MSN 17:00 → ATL 20:24DL 2599	1h 18m Atlanta	ATL 21:42 → EWR 23:52DL 2527	5h 52m	96%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON