Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 8–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 5664 MSN 06:58 → LGA 10:23 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest YX 5826 MSN 15:40 → LGA 19:05 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 5664 Republic	MSN 06:58	LGA 10:23	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 4490 American flown by Republic Flight history →	MSN 07:01	LGA 10:40	8%	2%	0.7%	94%
AA 4624 American flown by Republic Flight history →	MSN 07:11	LGA 10:41	8%	2%	0.7%	96%
YX 5850 Republic	MSN 15:27	LGA 19:04	13%	5%	0.7%	no record
YX 5826 Republic	MSN 15:40	LGA 19:05	13%	5%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON