Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 3–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3166 MSN 05:59 → MSP 07:09 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 5480 MSN 19:50 → MSP 21:07 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3166 Delta	MSN 05:59	MSP 07:09	3%	3%	0.6%	no record
9E 5135 Endeavor	MSN 10:53	MSP 12:09	6%	3%	0.7%	no record
9E 5174 Endeavor	MSN 14:36	MSP 15:51	6%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 4103 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSN 08:52	MSP 10:10	7%	3%	0.5%	78%
DL 4102 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSN 12:03	MSP 13:33	8%	3%	0.5%	85%
DL 5480 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	MSN 19:50	MSP 21:07	8%	4%	0.7%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON