Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 20 nonstops

Tomorrow: MQ 3819 at 05:04 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–16%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3819 MSN 05:04 → ORD 06:35 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest G7 4393 MSN 18:39 → ORD 19:55 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3819 Envoy	MSN 05:04	ORD 06:35	4%	2%	0.6%	no record
YX 4775 Republic	MSN 05:01	ORD 06:01	5%	3%	0.4%	no record
UA 5902 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSN 05:00	ORD 06:05	5%	4%	0.5%	89%
YX 4669 Republic	MSN 06:11	ORD 07:11	8%	3%	0.3%	no record
MQ 4216 Envoy	MSN 07:19	ORD 08:39	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 2137 United Flight history →	MSN 06:54	ORD 08:06	8%	3%	0.4%	80%
YX 4460 Republic	MSN 09:54	ORD 11:03	8%	2%	0.3%	no record
AA 3923 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MSN 09:40	ORD 10:45	9%	3%	0.6%	79%
AA 3748 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MSN 20:02	ORD 21:09	11%	3%	0.7%	69%
G7 4535 GoJet	MSN 10:29	ORD 11:33	11%	2%	0.9%	no record
UA 1400 United	MSN 14:45	ORD 16:03	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
YX 4441 Republic	MSN 19:05	ORD 20:14	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1851 United	MSN 16:08	ORD 17:13	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 4038 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MSN 15:36	ORD 16:48	13%	3%	0.7%	41%
G7 4482 GoJet	MSN 12:39	ORD 13:44	13%	3%	0.9%	no record
UA 394 United	MSN 08:11	ORD 09:16	14%	3%	0.4%	no record
AA 6256 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSN 12:48	ORD 13:54	15%	4%	0.7%	82%
AA 6270 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSN 12:20	ORD 13:25	15%	5%	0.7%	62%
OO 6360 SkyWest	MSN 15:22	ORD 16:28	16%	5%	0.7%	no record
G7 4393 GoJet	MSN 18:39	ORD 19:55	16%	4%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON