Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


OH 5318 PSA	MSN 06:17	PHL 09:33	6%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 5334 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MSN 13:36	PHL 16:56	11%	5%	0.8%	78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Madison). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	MSN 05:00 → ORD 06:05UA 5902 · flown by SkyWest	1h 15m Chicago	ORD 07:20 → PHL 10:26UA 2856	4h 26m	98%	92%
Delta Details →	MSN 05:48 → ATL 08:57DL 1160	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 11:21 → PHL 13:24DL 2279	6h 36m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	MSN 17:00 → ATL 20:24DL 2599	2h 32m Atlanta	ATL 22:56 → PHL 00:59 +1DL 2642	6h 59m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	MSN 13:31 → DTW 15:49DL 844	1h 51m Detroit	DTW 17:40 → PHL 19:25DL 1686	4h 54m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	MSN 09:27 → DTW 11:51DL 5205 · flown by Endeavor	3h 09m Detroit	DTW 15:00 → PHL 16:43DL 1391	6h 16m	99%	87%
United Details →	MSN 06:53 → ORD 08:05UA 2137	3h 28m Chicago	ORD 11:33 → PHL 14:47UA 2182	6h 54m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	MSN 08:52 → MSP 10:10DL 4103 · flown by SkyWest	59m Minneapolis	MSP 11:09 → PHL 14:43DL 2679	4h 51m	93%	87%
Delta Details →	MSN 11:07 → ATL 14:13DL 2681	1h 52m Atlanta	ATL 16:05 → PHL 18:12DL 1329	6h 05m	98%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON