Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 10–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 634 MSN 08:00 → PHX 09:32 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 1734 MSN 14:41 → PHX 16:24 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 634 American Flight history →	MSN 08:00	PHX 09:32	10%	5%	0.4%	86%
AA 1351 American	MSN 14:45	PHX 16:43	16%	5%	0.9%	no record
AA 1734 American	MSN 14:41	PHX 16:24	18%	5%	0.9%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	MSN 19:51 → MSP 21:09DL 5480 · flown by Endeavor	47m Minneapolis	MSP 21:56 → PHX 23:09DL 1448	5h 18m	89%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON