tailodds FORECAST
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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via Denver, leaving 06:05, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 1 h behind Missoula). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MSO 06:05 → DEN 08:11UA 1026 1h 51m Denver DEN 10:02 → LAX 11:34UA 405 6h 29m 100% 92%
UnitedDetails → MSO 10:36 → DEN 12:48UA 5484 · flown by SkyWest 2h 55m Denver DEN 15:43 → LAX 17:15UA 1195 7h 39m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → MSO 16:19 → SFO 17:50UA 5417 · flown by SkyWest 3h 37m San Francisco SFO 21:27 → LAX 22:55UA 1079 7h 36m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → MSO 05:35 → SLC 07:06DL 2795 2h 29m Salt Lake City SLC 09:35 → LAX 10:34DL 1095 5h 59m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → MSO 14:25 → DEN 16:30UA 1436 3h 23m Denver DEN 19:53 → LAX 21:31UA 1460 8h 06m 98% 86%
AlaskaDetails → MSO 13:14 → PDX 13:55AS 2042 · flown by Horizon 3h 42m Portland PDX 17:37 → LAX 20:09AS 278 7h 55m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → MSO 13:15 → SLC 14:57DL 4112 · flown by SkyWest 2h 13m Salt Lake City SLC 17:10 → LAX 18:07DL 1161 5h 52m 99% 81%
AlaskaDetails → MSO 15:48 → SEA 16:18AS 660 2h 48m Seattle SEA 19:06 → LAX 21:41AS 492 6h 53m 98% 75%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON