Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 2907 Delta Flight history →	MSO 08:33	MSP 12:10	6%	3%	0.6%	92%
DL 362 Delta Flight history →	MSO 15:28	MSP 19:05	8%	3%	0.6%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h ahead of Missoula). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSO 05:35 → SLC 07:06DL 2795	54m Salt Lake City	SLC 08:00 → MSP 11:29DL 2916	4h 54m	94%	87%
United Details →	MSO 06:05 → DEN 08:11UA 1026	1h 29m Denver	DEN 09:40 → MSP 12:40UA 397	5h 35m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	MSO 13:15 → SLC 14:57DL 4112 · flown by SkyWest	2h 24m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:21 → MSP 20:54DL 2935	6h 39m	99%	86%
United Details →	MSO 10:36 → DEN 12:48UA 5484 · flown by SkyWest	2h 54m Denver	DEN 15:42 → MSP 18:46UA 2470	7h 10m	100%	84%
United Details →	MSO 14:25 → DEN 16:30UA 1436	1h 35m Denver	DEN 18:05 → MSP 21:10UA 2076	5h 45m	95%	79%
United Details →	MSO 12:34 → ORD 17:05UA 636	2h 52m Chicago	ORD 19:57 → MSP 21:41UA 2005	8h 07m	94%	79%
Alaska Details →	MSO 16:04 → SEA 16:30AS 660	3h 04m Seattle	SEA 19:34 → MSP 00:43 +1AS 527	7h 39m	98%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON