Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


MQ 3487 Envoy	MSO 12:52	ORD 17:20	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 636 United Flight history →	MSO 12:34	ORD 17:05	11%	4%	0.7%	84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h ahead of Missoula). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	MSO 06:05 → DEN 08:11UA 1026	1h 24m Denver	DEN 09:35 → ORD 13:15UA 2329	6h 10m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	MSO 08:33 → MSP 12:09DL 2907	1h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 13:25 → ORD 15:05DL 1533	5h 32m	96%	84%
United Details →	MSO 14:25 → DEN 16:30UA 1436	3h 53m Denver	DEN 20:23 → ORD 23:52UA 377	8h 27m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	MSO 13:15 → SLC 14:57DL 4112 · flown by SkyWest	2h 24m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:21 → ORD 21:29DL 2413	7h 14m	99%	82%
United Details →	MSO 10:36 → DEN 12:48UA 5484 · flown by SkyWest	2h 13m Denver	DEN 15:01 → ORD 18:46UA 1023	7h 10m	100%	80%
Alaska Details →	MSO 14:16 → SEA 14:55AS 2219 · flown by Horizon	2h 53m Seattle	SEA 17:48 → ORD 23:59AS 538	8h 43m	97%	78%
Delta Details →	MSO 15:28 → MSP 19:05DL 362	1h 10m Minneapolis	MSP 20:15 → ORD 21:52DL 1563	5h 24m	94%	75%
United Details →	MSO 16:19 → SFO 17:50UA 5417 · flown by SkyWest	54m San Francisco	SFO 18:44 → ORD 00:58 +1UA 1958	7h 39m	80%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON