Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


OO 3207 SkyWest	MSO 13:09	PDX 13:51	9%	5%	0.6%	no record
AS 2042 Alaska flown by Horizon Flight history →	MSO 13:15	PDX 13:57	11%	3%	1.3%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 1 h behind Missoula). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	MSO 06:05 → DEN 08:11UA 1026	3h 16m Denver	DEN 11:27 → PDX 13:09UA 644	8h 04m	100%	90%
United Details →	MSO 10:36 → DEN 12:48UA 5484 · flown by SkyWest	3h 12m Denver	DEN 16:00 → PDX 17:44UA 1337	8h 08m	100%	89%
United Details →	MSO 16:19 → SFO 17:50UA 5417 · flown by SkyWest	3h 20m San Francisco	SFO 21:10 → PDX 23:12UA 2413	7h 53m	100%	88%
United Details →	MSO 14:25 → DEN 16:30UA 1436	3h 00m Denver	DEN 19:30 → PDX 21:15UA 498	7h 50m	97%	83%
Alaska Details →	MSO 15:47 → SEA 16:17AS 660	2h 51m Seattle	SEA 19:08 → PDX 20:05AS 434	5h 18m	98%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON