tailodds FORECAST
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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via SFO, leaving 16:19, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching San Diego on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 1 h behind Missoula). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MSO 16:19 → SFO 17:50UA 5417 · flown by SkyWest 3h 13m San Francisco SFO 21:03 → SAN 22:49UA 442 7h 30m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → MSO 06:05 → DEN 08:11UA 1026 3h 04m Denver DEN 11:15 → SAN 12:41UA 1940 7h 36m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → MSO 13:15 → SLC 14:57DL 4112 · flown by SkyWest 2h 13m Salt Lake City SLC 17:10 → SAN 18:06DL 1252 5h 51m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → MSO 10:36 → DEN 12:48UA 5484 · flown by SkyWest 3h 07m Denver DEN 15:55 → SAN 17:20UA 1281 7h 44m 100% 80%
UnitedDetails → MSO 14:25 → DEN 16:30UA 1436 2h 50m Denver DEN 19:20 → SAN 20:46UA 540 7h 21m 97% 76%
AlaskaDetails → MSO 13:14 → PDX 13:55AS 2042 · flown by Horizon 3h 51m Portland PDX 17:46 → SAN 20:09AS 667 7h 55m 99% 74%
AlaskaDetails → MSO 15:48 → SEA 16:18AS 660 2h 48m Seattle SEA 19:06 → SAN 21:46AS 623 6h 58m 98% 69%
AlaskaDetails → MSO 14:16 → SEA 14:55AS 2219 · flown by Horizon 2h 21m Seattle SEA 17:16 → SAN 19:52AS 635 6h 36m 97% 64%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → MSO 15:48 → SEA 16:18AS 660 58m Seattle SEA 17:16 → SAN 19:52AS 635 5h 04m 71% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON