Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: AS 722 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–28%.

Safest bet that day AS 722 MSO 07:00 → SEA 07:27 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 660 MSO 15:47 → SEA 16:17 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 722 Alaska	MSO 07:00	SEA 07:27	9%	2%	1.0%	no record
AS 354 Alaska	MSO 07:01	SEA 07:30	11%	2%	1.0%	no record
OO 3333 SkyWest	MSO 14:09	SEA 14:46	24%	5%	0.6%	no record
AS 2219 Alaska flown by Horizon Flight history →	MSO 14:17	SEA 14:57	27%	4%	1.2%	84%worse than usual
AS 660 Alaska Flight history →	MSO 15:47	SEA 16:17	28%	3%	0.6%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON