tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, UA 5417 at 16:19, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 5417 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → MSO 16:19 SFO 17:50 17% 6% 0.7% 54%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 1 h behind Missoula). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MSO 06:05 → DEN 08:11UA 1026 3h 10m Denver DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561 7h 59m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → MSO 10:36 → DEN 12:48UA 5484 · flown by SkyWest 2h 59m Denver DEN 15:47 → SFO 17:30UA 2633 7h 54m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → MSO 05:35 → SLC 07:06DL 2795 3h 54m Salt Lake City SLC 11:00 → SFO 12:03DL 902 7h 28m 98% 84%
AlaskaDetails → MSO 13:14 → PDX 13:55AS 2042 · flown by Horizon 3h 49m Portland PDX 17:44 → SFO 19:34AS 1393 7h 20m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → MSO 14:25 → DEN 16:30UA 1436 1h 24m Denver DEN 17:54 → SFO 19:40UA 1007 6h 15m 94% 78%
AlaskaDetails → MSO 15:48 → SEA 16:18AS 660 2h 18m Seattle SEA 18:36 → SFO 20:48AS 619 6h 00m 98% 70%
AlaskaDetails → MSO 14:16 → SEA 14:55AS 2219 · flown by Horizon 1h 41m Seattle SEA 16:36 → SFO 18:48AS 1385 5h 32m 94% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → MSO 14:16 → SEA 14:55AS 2219 · flown by Horizon 48m Seattle SEA 15:43 → SFO 17:48AS 680 4h 32m 45% 30%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON