Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 10–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 4009 MSP 21:45 → ATW 22:57 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 3983 MSP 14:26 → ATW 15:38 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OO 4009 SkyWest	MSP 21:45	ATW 22:57	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 3921 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 10:24	ATW 11:41	11%	4%	0.6%	83%
OO 3983 SkyWest	MSP 14:26	ATW 15:38	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 4951 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MSP 09:32	ATW 10:47	15%	9%	0.0%	85%
DL 4920 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MSP 21:45	ATW 22:58	33%	12%	5.5%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON