Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 6–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 137 MSP 10:54 → AUS 13:30 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 2687 MSP 14:36 → AUS 17:26 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 137 Southwest	MSP 10:54	AUS 13:30	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 2062 Delta Flight history →	MSP 10:10	AUS 12:50	6%	2%	0.6%	83%
DL 3950 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 07:00	AUS 09:55	7%	2%	0.5%	78%
DL 2749 Delta Flight history →	MSP 19:45	AUS 22:25	9%	3%	0.6%	76%
DL 2687 Delta Flight history →	MSP 14:36	AUS 17:26	10%	2%	0.6%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON