Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:20, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Asheville on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Asheville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Asheville is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062	3h 22m Atlanta	ATL 12:16 → AVL 13:12DL 1182	6h 52m	100%	88%
United Details →	MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 2041	2h 53m Denver	DEN 09:46 → AVL 14:49UA 1992	8h 04m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	MSP 08:26 → ATL 11:54DL 1052	2h 11m Atlanta	ATL 14:05 → AVL 15:13DL 3099	5h 47m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	MSP 10:05 → LGA 13:45DL 2764	2h 44m New York	LGA 16:29 → AVL 18:20DL 4665 · flown by Endeavor	7h 15m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	MSP 10:32 → ATL 14:04DL 1046	2h 05m Atlanta	ATL 16:09 → AVL 17:17DL 3101	5h 45m	98%	82%
American Details →	MSP 06:19 → CLT 10:00AA 894	2h 20m Charlotte	CLT 12:20 → AVL 13:01AA 5899 · flown by Piedmont	5h 42m	99%	78%
American Details →	MSP 06:06 → DFW 08:50AA 1395	3h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:59 → AVL 15:19AA 569	8h 13m	98%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON