Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:37 am at Minneapolis); 1 already left

Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 2285 Delta Flight history →	MSP 14:26	BDL 18:04	13%	3%	0.1%	78%
DL 2871 Delta Flight history →	MSP 20:00	BDL 23:39	17%	4%	0.1%	78%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hartford on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hartford is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	MSP 11:32 → ORD 13:15UA 576	1h 36m Chicago	ORD 14:51 → BDL 18:14UA 1617	5h 42m	95%	83%
Delta Details →	MSP 12:45 → ATL 16:22DL 1048	2h 34m Atlanta	ATL 18:56 → BDL 21:19DL 2504	7h 34m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	MSP 14:57 → ATL 18:29DL 1036	3h 02m Atlanta	ATL 21:31 → BDL 23:54DL 1011	7h 57m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	MSP 17:50 → DTW 20:36DL 1476	54m Detroit	DTW 21:30 → BDL 23:14DL 2989	4h 24m	85%	71%
United Details →	MSP 15:16 → ORD 16:58UA 1531	1h 47m Chicago	ORD 18:45 → BDL 21:58UA 1616	5h 42m	91%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON