Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 4–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 3482 MSP 07:14 → BNA 09:21 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1144 MSP 20:20 → BNA 22:26 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3482 Southwest	MSP 07:14	BNA 09:21	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 2724 Delta Flight history →	MSP 06:55	BNA 08:58	4%	1%	0.5%	90%
WN 342 Southwest	MSP 13:45	BNA 15:46	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 2843 Delta Flight history →	MSP 12:50	BNA 14:52	6%	2%	0.5%	89%
DL 2612 Delta Flight history →	MSP 15:29	BNA 17:35	8%	2%	0.5%	79%
DL 1144 Delta Flight history →	MSP 20:20	BNA 22:26	9%	2%	0.5%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON