Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, DL 1749 at 15:22, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 1749 Delta Flight history →	MSP 15:22	BUF 18:24	12%	3%	0.6%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Buffalo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Buffalo is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSP 08:26 → ATL 11:54DL 1052	2h 06m Atlanta	ATL 14:00 → BUF 16:03DL 2266	6h 37m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	MSP 06:55 → JFK 10:39DL 2969	2h 46m New York	JFK 13:25 → BUF 14:45DL 5296 · flown by Endeavor	6h 50m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	MSP 16:15 → DTW 18:59DL 1476	3h 51m Detroit	DTW 22:50 → BUF 23:58DL 978	6h 43m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	MSP 10:05 → LGA 13:45DL 2764	2h 27m New York	LGA 16:12 → BUF 17:43DL 5792 · flown by Republic	6h 38m	99%	85%
American Details →	MSP 06:19 → CLT 10:00AA 894	3h 39m Charlotte	CLT 13:39 → BUF 15:29AA 2442	8h 10m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	MSP 10:32 → ATL 14:04DL 1046	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 16:33 → BUF 18:41DL 2050	7h 09m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	MSP 14:58 → ATL 18:30DL 1036	3h 22m Atlanta	ATL 21:52 → BUF 23:59DL 2334	8h 01m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	MSP 07:05 → LGA 10:44DL 2719	1h 12m New York	LGA 11:56 → BUF 13:16DL 5362 · flown by Endeavor	5h 11m	95%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON