Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 2–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 426 MSP 05:59 → BWI 09:33 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 2918 MSP 17:55 → BWI 21:32 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 426 Southwest	MSP 05:59	BWI 09:33	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 2357 Delta Flight history →	MSP 07:10	BWI 10:42	5%	1%	0.6%	93%
DL 2565 Delta Flight history →	MSP 14:41	BWI 18:15	8%	2%	0.6%	63%
WN 2897 Southwest	MSP 15:31	BWI 19:06	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 2918 Delta Flight history →	MSP 17:55	BWI 21:32	9%	2%	0.6%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON