Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 5–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1912 MSP 07:11 → CLT 10:39 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1671 MSP 15:04 → CLT 18:31 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1912 Delta	MSP 07:11	CLT 10:39	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 894 American Flight history →	MSP 06:19	CLT 10:00	6%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 2819 Delta Flight history →	MSP 10:30	CLT 13:57	6%	2%	0.5%	79%
DL 2929 Delta Flight history →	MSP 20:14	CLT 23:44	7%	2%	0.6%	78%
DL 2820 Delta Flight history →	MSP 14:30	CLT 18:02	8%	2%	0.5%	77%
AA 1672 American	MSP 10:59	CLT 14:32	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1671 American	MSP 15:04	CLT 18:31	13%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON