Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 2958 at 07:36 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–17%.

Safest bet that day DL 2958 MSP 07:36 → DCA 11:00 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest OH 5652 MSP 17:36 → DCA 21:01 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2958 Delta Flight history →	MSP 07:36	DCA 11:00	6%	2%	0.5%	84%
DL 2983 Delta Flight history →	MSP 10:25	DCA 13:48	6%	2%	0.5%	85%
OH 5391 PSA	MSP 06:01	DCA 09:48	8%	4%	0.8%	no record
DL 2961 Delta Flight history →	MSP 20:30	DCA 23:56	10%	3%	0.5%	71%
DL 2963 Delta Flight history →	MSP 14:37	DCA 18:09	10%	3%	0.5%	77%
OH 5183 PSA	MSP 10:51	DCA 14:21	11%	5%	0.8%	no record
OH 5652 PSA	MSP 17:36	DCA 21:01	17%	8%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON