Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 18 nonstops are 3–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2041 MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:53 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest DL 2931 MSP 18:45 → DEN 19:56 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2041 United Flight history →	MSP 05:45	DEN 06:53	3%	1%	0.5%	97%
WN 2898 Southwest	MSP 07:04	DEN 08:20	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 401 United	MSP 11:26	DEN 12:49	5%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 2899 Southwest	MSP 09:03	DEN 10:13	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 239 Southwest	MSP 11:07	DEN 12:15	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 1891 United Flight history →	MSP 09:05	DEN 10:21	6%	2%	0.5%	83%
DL 2849 Delta Flight history →	MSP 08:55	DEN 10:03	6%	1%	0.6%	82%
DL 2927 Delta Flight history →	MSP 11:00	DEN 12:05	6%	1%	0.6%	84%
UA 1305 United Flight history →	MSP 13:36	DEN 14:48	7%	2%	0.5%	87%
DL 1705 Delta Flight history →	MSP 22:15	DEN 23:27	8%	2%	0.6%	71%
F9 1291 Frontier Flight history →	MSP 06:54	DEN 08:23	8%	2%	0.8%	76%
UA 1704 United	MSP 17:07	DEN 18:28	9%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 2955 Southwest	MSP 14:20	DEN 15:25	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 1025 Delta Flight history →	MSP 14:27	DEN 15:30	9%	2%	0.6%	80%
F9 3199 Frontier Flight history →	MSP 13:16	DEN 14:30	10%	3%	0.8%	87%
UA 1906 United	MSP 18:25	DEN 19:35	12%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 2902 Southwest	MSP 18:56	DEN 19:59	13%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 2931 Delta Flight history →	MSP 18:45	DEN 19:56	13%	2%	0.6%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON