Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 10 nonstops are 4–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 1395 MSP 05:59 → DFW 08:42 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 2406 MSP 17:49 → DFW 20:22 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1395 American Flight history →	MSP 05:59	DFW 08:42	4%	2%	0.6%	87%
DL 2972 Delta Flight history →	MSP 07:54	DFW 10:23	6%	2%	0.5%	86%
DL 2970 Delta Flight history →	MSP 10:03	DFW 12:29	6%	2%	0.5%	83%
AA 1654 American	MSP 07:52	DFW 10:20	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 2220 American Flight history →	MSP 10:27	DFW 12:54	8%	3%	0.6%	80%
DL 2967 Delta Flight history →	MSP 19:50	DFW 22:21	8%	3%	0.5%	76%
F9 3223 Frontier Flight history →	MSP 18:48	DFW 21:30	10%	5%	0.7%	71%
DL 2971 Delta Flight history →	MSP 14:47	DFW 17:16	10%	2%	0.5%	76%
AA 1668 American	MSP 15:05	DFW 17:33	12%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 2406 American Flight history →	MSP 17:49	DFW 20:22	12%	5%	0.7%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON