Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Alaska via Seattle, leaving 14:56, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Fairbanks on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Fairbanks on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fairbanks is 3 h behind Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	MSP 14:56 → SEA 16:50AS 555	3h 50m Seattle	SEA 20:40 → FAI 23:19AS 349	11h 23m	99%	80%
Alaska Details →	MSP 07:03 → SEA 08:40AS 387	3h 23m Seattle	SEA 12:03 → FAI 14:51AS 230	10h 48m	98%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON