Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 6–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 3763 MSP 11:08 → FSD 12:25 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1694 MSP 22:05 → FSD 23:06 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 3763 SkyWest	MSP 11:08	FSD 12:25	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 3890 SkyWest	MSP 14:54	FSD 16:06	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 3905 SkyWest	MSP 18:34	FSD 19:49	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 3888 SkyWest	MSP 09:11	FSD 10:23	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 1694 Delta Flight history →	MSP 22:05	FSD 23:06	9%	3%	0.6%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON