Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 8–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1245 MSP 12:53 → GRR 15:23 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1711 MSP 21:40 → GRR 23:59 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1245 Delta	MSP 12:53	GRR 15:23	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
9E 5039 Endeavor	MSP 08:20	GRR 10:52	8%	2%	0.2%	no record
DL 1609 Delta	MSP 12:55	GRR 15:24	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 3990 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 08:25	GRR 10:53	10%	4%	0.2%	89%
DL 1555 Delta Flight history →	MSP 16:02	GRR 18:26	11%	3%	0.6%	82%
DL 1711 Delta Flight history →	MSP 21:40	GRR 23:59	11%	4%	0.6%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON