Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 10–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 3807 MSP 13:29 → ICT 15:39 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest OO 3762 MSP 13:03 → ICT 14:54 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3807 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 13:29	ICT 15:39	10%	3%	0.5%	90%
OO 3763 SkyWest	MSP 20:09	ICT 22:01	12%	3%	0.5%	no record
OO 3762 SkyWest	MSP 13:03	ICT 14:54	13%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON