Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, DL 2392 at 10:22, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 2392 Delta Flight history →	MSP 10:22	JAX 14:10	11%	2%	1.9%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jacksonville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jacksonville is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSP 00:01 → ATL 03:41DL 1032	2h 40m Atlanta	ATL 06:21 → JAX 07:36DL 9969	6h 35m	99%	93%
Delta Details →	MSP 09:00 → DTW 11:42DL 1433	3h 20m Detroit	DTW 15:02 → JAX 17:27DL 2994	7h 27m	99%	87%
United Details →	MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 2041	3h 30m Denver	DEN 10:23 → JAX 15:58UA 1451	9h 13m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062	3h 43m Atlanta	ATL 12:37 → JAX 13:45DL 3024	7h 25m	100%	84%
American Details →	MSP 06:19 → CLT 10:00AA 894	2h 08m Charlotte	CLT 12:08 → JAX 13:34AA 1462	6h 15m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	MSP 17:18 → ATL 21:05DL 1036	1h 49m Atlanta	ATL 22:54 → JAX 00:09 +1DL 2276	5h 51m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	MSP 06:55 → JFK 10:39DL 2969	3h 16m New York	JFK 13:55 → JAX 16:44DL 1035	8h 49m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	MSP 08:26 → ATL 11:54DL 1052	2h 03m Atlanta	ATL 13:57 → JAX 15:09DL 2990	5h 43m	99%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON