Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 3–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2969 MSP 06:55 → JFK 10:39 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest DL 2692 MSP 20:22 → JFK 00:02 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 2969 Delta Flight history →	MSP 06:55	JFK 10:39	3%	1%	0.5%	87%
DL 2661 Delta Flight history →	MSP 12:54	JFK 17:00	6%	2%	0.5%	84%
DL 2692 Delta Flight history →	MSP 20:22	JFK 00:02	8%	2%	0.6%	78%
DL 5244 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MSP 18:10	JFK 22:09	48%	20%	11.0%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON