Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 6–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2974 MSP 13:05 → LAX 14:48 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest DL 2103 MSP 21:59 → LAX 23:53 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2974 Delta Flight history →	MSP 13:05	LAX 14:48	6%	2%	0.6%	96%
DL 2119 Delta Flight history →	MSP 11:30	LAX 13:23	6%	2%	0.6%	88%
DL 2110 Delta Flight history →	MSP 07:06	LAX 09:00	6%	2%	0.6%	87%
DL 2102 Delta Flight history →	MSP 09:20	LAX 11:10	7%	2%	0.6%	83%
DL 2122 Delta Flight history →	MSP 18:59	LAX 20:51	10%	2%	0.6%	74%
DL 2103 Delta Flight history →	MSP 21:59	LAX 23:53	11%	2%	0.6%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON