Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 1730 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–18%.

Safest bet that day DL 1730 MSP 06:00 → MCO 10:07 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 2225 MSP 12:45 → MCO 17:04 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1730 Delta Flight history →	MSP 06:00	MCO 10:07	3%	1%	0.8%	90%
DL 1208 Delta Flight history →	MSP 09:27	MCO 13:40	8%	2%	0.9%	80%
DL 2848 Delta	MSP 08:58	MCO 13:05	8%	2%	1.0%	no record
DL 2309 Delta Flight history →	MSP 19:45	MCO 23:58	16%	5%	1.0%	69%
DL 2225 Delta Flight history →	MSP 12:45	MCO 17:04	18%	6%	0.9%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON