Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3077 at 05:34 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–16%.

Safest bet that day WN 3077 MSP 05:34 → MDW 07:08 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 254 MSP 17:32 → MDW 18:56 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3077 Southwest	MSP 05:34	MDW 07:08	3%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 2903 Southwest	MSP 06:32	MDW 08:00	5%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 3675 Southwest	MSP 07:18	MDW 08:52	5%	2%	0.2%	no record
DL 4820 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	MSP 10:39	MDW 12:21	7%	3%	0.7%	62%
WN 3079 Southwest	MSP 10:43	MDW 12:18	8%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 4714 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	MSP 15:32	MDW 17:14	9%	4%	0.7%	59%
WN 4781 Southwest	MSP 10:28	MDW 11:54	10%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 4712 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	MSP 07:27	MDW 09:09	10%	3%	0.2%	84%
WN 3080 Southwest	MSP 15:16	MDW 16:50	13%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4715 Southwest	MSP 12:37	MDW 13:56	14%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 276 Southwest	MSP 15:00	MDW 16:29	14%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1704 Southwest	MSP 17:56	MDW 19:30	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 254 Southwest	MSP 17:32	MDW 18:56	16%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON