Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 6–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 561 MSP 10:05 → MKE 11:17 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest OO 3738 MSP 19:44 → MKE 20:53 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 561 Delta Flight history →	MSP 10:05	MKE 11:17	6%	2%	0.6%	80%
OO 3804 SkyWest	MSP 07:44	MKE 09:06	7%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 2006 Delta Flight history →	MSP 13:54	MKE 15:09	8%	2%	0.6%	83%
OO 3821 SkyWest	MSP 17:59	MKE 19:11	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 3848 SkyWest	MSP 18:17	MKE 19:29	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 3738 SkyWest	MSP 19:44	MKE 20:53	13%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON