Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 8–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day 9E 5135 MSP 09:03 → MSN 10:14 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 5331 MSP 16:40 → MSN 17:54 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


9E 5135 Endeavor	MSP 09:03	MSN 10:14	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
9E 5174 Endeavor	MSP 12:56	MSN 14:19	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 4102 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 10:12	MSN 11:19	9%	3%	0.5%	84%
9E 5133 Endeavor	MSP 13:00	MSN 14:11	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 4103 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 07:00	MSN 08:11	9%	4%	0.5%	81%
DL 1599 Delta Flight history →	MSP 21:59	MSN 23:00	11%	4%	0.6%	83%
DL 5331 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	MSP 16:40	MSN 17:54	12%	5%	0.7%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON