Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 307 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 307 MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 1237 MSP 18:59 → ORD 20:32 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 307 United Flight history →	MSP 06:00	ORD 07:44	2%	2%	0.5%	92%
AA 1011 American	MSP 06:12	ORD 07:54	5%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 4162 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MSP 10:31	ORD 12:16	5%	2%	0.6%	89%
DL 1544 Delta Flight history →	MSP 07:00	ORD 08:30	7%	2%	0.6%	83%
MQ 3551 Envoy	MSP 10:45	ORD 12:20	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 2773 United	MSP 07:51	ORD 09:21	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 2000 United	MSP 09:30	ORD 11:00	8%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 576 United Flight history →	MSP 11:32	ORD 13:15	9%	3%	0.5%	73%
DL 1567 Delta Flight history →	MSP 10:00	ORD 11:32	9%	2%	0.6%	72%
DL 1533 Delta Flight history →	MSP 13:25	ORD 15:05	9%	3%	0.6%	71%
UA 2790 United	MSP 13:11	ORD 14:48	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
MQ 4228 Envoy	MSP 18:00	ORD 19:35	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 1306 Delta Flight history →	MSP 15:20	ORD 16:59	15%	3%	0.6%	57%
AA 2448 American	MSP 14:16	ORD 15:46	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 424 United	MSP 16:47	ORD 18:28	15%	4%	0.5%	no record
UA 1531 United Flight history →	MSP 15:16	ORD 16:58	15%	5%	0.5%	55%
DL 1563 Delta Flight history →	MSP 20:15	ORD 21:52	16%	5%	0.6%	68%
AA 2472 American	MSP 20:16	ORD 21:48	17%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 1237 United Flight history →	MSP 18:59	ORD 20:32	22%	6%	0.5%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON