Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day


DL 5518 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MSP 19:55	ORF 23:47	36%	11%	1.2%	64%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Norfolk on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Norfolk is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSP 00:01 → ATL 03:41DL 1032	3h 50m Atlanta	ATL 07:31 → ORF 09:09DL 1336	8h 08m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	MSP 06:04 → DTW 08:47DL 1461	1h 17m Detroit	DTW 10:04 → ORF 11:54DL 1359	4h 50m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062	3h 29m Atlanta	ATL 12:23 → ORF 14:10DL 2925	7h 50m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	MSP 16:15 → DTW 18:59DL 1476	2h 41m Detroit	DTW 21:40 → ORF 23:32DL 412	6h 17m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	MSP 08:26 → ATL 11:54DL 1052	2h 16m Atlanta	ATL 14:10 → ORF 15:50DL 1101	6h 24m	100%	90%
American Details →	MSP 10:31 → ORD 12:16AA 4162 · flown by Envoy	2h 36m Chicago	ORD 14:52 → ORF 18:16AA 4164 · flown by Envoy	6h 45m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	MSP 10:32 → ATL 14:04DL 1046	3h 03m Atlanta	ATL 17:07 → ORF 18:53DL 1346	7h 21m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	MSP 17:18 → ATL 21:05DL 1036	1h 41m Atlanta	ATL 22:46 → ORF 00:34 +1DL 2338	6h 16m	98%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON