Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 3–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2688 MSP 07:10 → PHL 10:44 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest OH 5347 MSP 12:32 → PHL 16:09 · 8% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 5% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2688 Delta Flight history →	MSP 07:10	PHL 10:44	3%	1%	0.6%	91%
DL 2679 Delta Flight history →	MSP 11:09	PHL 14:43	4%	1%	0.6%	85%
AA 1481 American	MSP 05:59	PHL 09:55	4%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 2594 Delta Flight history →	MSP 14:25	PHL 18:04	6%	2%	0.6%	76%
DL 2703 Delta Flight history →	MSP 20:25	PHL 23:56	7%	2%	0.6%	77%
OH 5347 PSA	MSP 12:32	PHL 16:09	8%	3%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON