Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 6–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1047 MSP 07:26 → PHX 08:37 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest DL 2297 MSP 18:48 → PHX 20:06 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1047 Delta Flight history →	MSP 07:26	PHX 08:37	6%	1%	0.6%	87%
DL 2274 Delta Flight history →	MSP 11:32	PHX 12:46	7%	2%	0.6%	81%
DL 2208 Delta Flight history →	MSP 09:28	PHX 10:43	7%	1%	0.6%	77%
AA 3143 American Flight history →	MSP 07:41	PHX 09:00	8%	2%	0.6%	85%
AA 408 American Flight history →	MSP 15:12	PHX 17:28	9%	4%	0.6%	92%
DL 2284 Delta Flight history →	MSP 14:54	PHX 16:09	9%	2%	0.6%	82%
DL 2297 Delta Flight history →	MSP 18:48	PHX 20:06	11%	3%	0.6%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON