Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 5–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1219 MSP 07:03 → PIT 10:01 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1134 MSP 19:46 → PIT 22:51 · 9% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 1219 Delta	MSP 07:03	PIT 10:01	5%	2%	0.4%	no record
DL 845 Delta Flight history →	MSP 07:29	PIT 10:33	6%	1%	0.4%	89%
DL 1134 Delta	MSP 19:46	PIT 22:51	9%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 4971 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MSP 13:07	PIT 16:23	27%	10%	1.7%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON