Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:20, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Providence on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Providence on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Providence is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062	1h 06m Atlanta	ATL 10:00 → PVD 12:29DL 2147	6h 09m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	MSP 06:04 → DTW 08:47DL 1461	1h 24m Detroit	DTW 10:11 → PVD 12:16DL 3723 · flown by SkyWest	5h 12m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	MSP 08:26 → ATL 11:54DL 1052	2h 08m Atlanta	ATL 14:02 → PVD 16:29DL 2314	7h 03m	100%	91%
American Details →	MSP 06:19 → CLT 10:00AA 894	3h 42m Charlotte	CLT 13:42 → PVD 15:48AA 2679	8h 29m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	MSP 10:32 → ATL 14:04DL 1046	3h 36m Atlanta	ATL 17:40 → PVD 20:09DL 2659	8h 37m	100%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON