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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: one nonstop, DL 1766 at 06:55, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 1766 Delta Flight history → MSP 06:55 PWM 10:42 5% 2% 0.5% 93%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSP 06:04 → DTW 08:47DL 1461 1h 13m Detroit DTW 10:00 → PWM 11:55DL 426 4h 51m 99% 93%
DeltaDetails → MSP 09:00 → DTW 11:42DL 1433 2h 23m Detroit DTW 14:05 → PWM 16:01DL 1821 6h 01m 99% 92%
UnitedDetails → MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 2041 3h 14m Denver DEN 10:07 → PWM 16:14UA 372 9h 29m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44UA 307 3h 16m Chicago ORD 11:00 → PWM 14:31UA 2804 7h 31m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062 1h 26m Atlanta ATL 10:20 → PWM 13:00DL 2479 6h 40m 98% 86%
AmericanDetails → MSP 10:31 → ORD 12:16AA 4162 · flown by Envoy 1h 04m Chicago ORD 13:20 → PWM 16:45AA 4741 · flown by Republic 5h 14m 96% 85%
AmericanDetails → MSP 10:27 → DFW 12:54AA 2220 1h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:07 → PWM 18:51AA 2312 7h 24m 94% 77%
DeltaDetails → MSP 06:55 → JFK 10:39DL 2969 2h 06m New York JFK 12:45 → PWM 14:19DL 5399 · flown by Endeavor 6h 24m 99% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MSP 18:10 → JFK 22:09DL 5244 · flown by Endeavor 50m New York JFK 22:59 → PWM 00:52 +1DL 5411 · flown by Endeavor 5h 42m 48% 31%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON